The primary objective of the NH EPSCoR Land Cover Scenarios effort is to produce narrative descriptions and simulate decadal maps of New Hampshire land cover from the present through 2100 AD. These simulations represent a range of possible future conditions that reflect both stakeholder perspectives as well as existing landscape plans and visions. Each of the land cover narratives provides the basis for simulating land cover changes that are visualized in a series of maps that serve as inputs to process-based terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem models to explore how ecosystem services will change in the future under changes in land use.
We combine key informant interviews (e.g., Marshall, 1996; Patton, 2001; Frey and Fontana, 1991) with a review of New Hampshire focused surveys, plans and vision to inform a set of land cover change narratives for New Hampshire over the 21st century that reflect diverse stakeholder perspectives. These narratives serve as the basis for simulating a set of land cover change maps. Our approach allowed for: 1) production of a set of landscape narratives that capture the nuances and complexity of multiple stakeholder viewpoints; 2) identification of key landscape characteristics and the development of spatial data layers to represent these characteristics; and 3) presentation of alternative land cover scenarios in map and narrative forms. Maps offer an effective way for stakeholders to visualize alternative land cover futures and facilitate spatial analysis and modeling of interactions between land cover and other system attributes. Scenario narratives provide a mechanism for providing context for the simulated maps.